Twitter, as you know it, will die(ish)
Ok, I don’t think Twitter is going away in one year, but I do think it will drastically change. Twitter has a couple major problems, none of which are a secret. First off, Twitter has to start making money. This is complicated by Twitter’s very open and accessible API which has spawned a plethora of third-party apps. All of these would have to be reigned in to make sure whatever Twitter does isn’t circumvented.
The other problem is SPAM SPAM SPAM! While I have no hard evidence for this, I think most people have realized the vast population of their “followers” are robots, or people simply acting like robots (I call ‘em “Twitter zombies”). Twitter is so easy to exploit using keywords and automated systems like TweetSpinner… not that we know anything about that (*cough* Todd *cough*). I would personally guess at least 60% of Twitter traffic being spam, and since we have all noticed how much Twitter is overloaded, that means Twitter’s infrastructure is having to support all that spam along with legitimate services.
I also think that Facebook is a much better service than Twitter for actually being used by real people. Being able to have “mini-conversations” with your status updates is great, and really adds to the experience. Responding with @you tweets just don’t cut it. All-in-all, I think Twitter has already hit the ceiling and has some drastic work to do to maintain it’s momentum.
Google Wave will be the Twitter of 2010… when Twitter was in 2008.
Google Wave is an awesome product idea, but maybe too awesome. I see Google Wave as Facebook for productivity. When used correctly, Google Wave will drastically increase workplace productivity and communication. The problem is that the idea is a leading idea, or in other words, it is an idea that fills a need for people they don’t know they have… yet.
Google Wave has a bumpy ride ahead of people “not getting it”. But just like Twitter, lead early adopters will slowly lead the way for everyone else to catch on. Email has had a great ride, but we really need something better for digital communication. Google Wave represents the next generation of messaging and communicating.
Cha-Cha, as you know it, will die… again
I wish I blogged about this a year ago, because I told people a year ago that Cha-Cha’s business model wouldn’t work, and some proof to show off would be nice. So take it or leave it, this year I am writing it down! Cha-Cha seems to have already realized their “human search” isn’t going to be profitable, and has now moved onto to other ideas like selling texting coupon services.
While never seeming to run out of investor money, Cha-Cha is still plodding along. However, I have two main reasons for thinking Cha-Cha just isn’t going to make it. Reason One: No one is trying to buy them. Seriously, anything good in Web 2.0 gets bought or at least courted by someone. Reason Two: I think text messaging is going to die too. With more and more people buying smart phones, it’s just a matter of time till people use email, chat programs like AIM and Google Talk, and Facebook over text messaging. Seriously, who wants to pay for text messaging when none of the other services add to your already high monthly cell phone internet service?
Smart-phones and Computer Will Merge… and I Don’t Mean Netbooks
Personal computers are already starting to die out. Almost no one buys desktops anymore, if consumers can’t afford laptops, they buy netbooks or really cheap laptops. While professionals and serious computer gamers need power, most consumers just want email, Internet, spreadsheet, and word processing. Now that smart-phones can do all that, or are close to doing all that, the only thing missing is size.
While all the computing power we need fits in our pockets (that’s what SHE said), the best smart-phone keypad still doesn’t compete with a full-sized keyboard, mouse, and screen. It’s just a matter of time till someone figures this out and makes a smart phone that docks with a full-sized keyboard, mouse, and monitor when at home or the office as easily as a car pulls into a garage (that’s what… nevermind).
Seriously, I can’t believe no one has invented this (for the masses, all those expensive geek-only products don’t count). Sony, Apple, Dell, Nokia, or some ingenious startup is going to make this happen. In 2009 the casual consumer was converted to smart phones, it’s just the logical next step.
